India’s growth to rise by 7.4% in fiscal year 2018-19: IMF
New Delhi, Apr 18 (KNN) With the continued implementation of structural reforms, India’s economic growth will accelerate in next two years the international Monetary Fund (IMF) said in its recent report.
The IMF has projected India’s higher growth prospects and concluded that the India will again emerge as the world’s fastest-growing major economy at least for the next 2 years.
The multilateral body said that the India’s growth will rise steadily to 7.4% for the current fiscal year (2018-19) and 7.8% for next fiscal year (2019-2020) against the growth rate of 6.7% in 2017-18.While the China’s growth will slow down to 6.6% in 2018 and 6.4% in 2019 against 6.9% in 2017.
According to IMF report statement, the medium term growth of India is projected to gradually rise with the ongoing structural reforms that affect both the productivity and private investments positively.
On fiscal deficit part, the government has fixed the fiscal deficit target at 3.5% for the year 2018(revised estimate), and final estimate would likely to be around 3.4%.
The fiscal deficit for the year 2019 is targeted at 3.3%.
Commenting over the fiscal slippage of 30 bps from the target for FY18, Finance Minister Arun Jaitley said that if the government had factored in full year GST collection, instead of 11 months this deficit gap would have bridged.
India needs to walk on fiscal consolidation path in medium term to strengthen fiscal policy credibility in order to cover the debts and achieve the fiscal deficit target.
Further, India needs recapitalization and broader package of financial reforms to improve the system of governance in Public sector bank and strengthen bank’s debt recovery mechanism.
Also the report forecasted about the global trade patterns and predicted that the global trade will rise by a 50 bps for 2018 and 30 bps for 2019 despite of ongoing trade war between China and US.
Though, risks are attached due to inward looking policies of some country but higher forecasts were made on the basis of a rebound in investments which suggests that the trade war may not spiral out of control, plunging the world into a broader crisis.