FY26 GDP Growth Could Exceed NSO’s 7.4% After Base-Year Revision: SBI Report

New Delhi, Jan 8 (KNN) India’s economic growth in FY 2025–26 could turn out to be higher than the 7.4 per cent projected by the National Statistical Office (NSO) once the new GDP base year is released, according to a report by State Bank of India (SBI).

The NSO’s First Advance Estimates place real GDP growth at 7.4 per cent in FY26, up from 6.5 per cent in FY25, with Gross Value Added (GVA) growth estimated at 7.3 per cent and nominal GDP growth at 8.0 per cent. 

SBI, however, sees an upward bias in the growth outlook, projecting GDP growth of around 7.5 per cent for FY26, particularly after the base year is revised to 2022–23, reported ANI.

Impact of Base-Year Revision

The report noted that the Second Advance Estimates, due on February 27, 2026, will incorporate additional data and revisions, and growth numbers are likely to change following the base-year update. “Growth is likely to be higher once the new base is released,” the report said.

SBI also pointed out that historically, the difference between GDP growth projections of the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) and the NSO has generally been within 20–30 basis points, suggesting that the current NSO estimate is broadly reasonable.

Income and Sectoral Outlook

According to the report, the growth momentum is expected to translate into higher incomes, with per capita national income projected to rise by about Rs 16,025 to Rs 2,47,487 in FY26.

On the sectoral front, agriculture and allied activities are estimated to grow by 3.1 per cent, lower than the 4.6 per cent recorded in FY25. The services sector is expected to remain the primary growth driver, with growth projected at 9.1 per cent in FY26, compared with 7.2 per cent in the previous year, with all sub-sectors showing faster expansion.

The industry sector is projected to grow by 6.0 per cent, marginally higher than 5.9 per cent in FY25, supported by manufacturing growth of 7.0 per cent. Mining, however, is expected to contract by 0.7 per cent, compared with growth of 2.7 per cent in the previous year.

The report reiterated that forthcoming data revisions and the adoption of the new base year could lead to further changes in growth estimates.

(KNN Bureau)