India Set To Attain Upper-Middle-Income Status By 2030: SBI Report

New Delhi, Jan 19 (KNN) India is on track to attain upper middle-income status by 2030 and is expected to become the world’s third-largest economy by 2028, as per a SBI Research report.

The World Bank categorises countries by per capita gross national income (GNI) into low, lower-middle, upper-middle, and high-income groups.

India’s per capita GNI is projected to reach approximately USD 4,276 by 2030, nearing the current upper-middle-income threshold of USD 4,495.

Rapid Economic Growth Over the Past Two Decades

The SBI report underscores India’s accelerating economic growth, noting that it took nearly six decades to advance from a low-income to a lower-middle-income country in 2007, while the pace of progress has since quickened markedly.

India’s per capita income rose to USD 1,000 in 2009, USD 2,000 in 2019, and is projected to reach USD 3,000 by 2026.

According to SBI Research, India ranks in the 95th percentile for average real GDP growth among developing and emerging economies over the decade ending 2024, up from the 92nd percentile over the past 25 years.

India’s nominal GDP ranking has risen from 14th in 1990 to 4th in 2025 and is projected to reach 3rd by 2028. The economy is expected to hit USD 5 trillion by 2027–28 and USD 10 trillion by 2035–36, driven by sustained nominal growth of around 11 percent in dollar terms, matching pre-pandemic trends.

Path to Upper Middle-Income and High-Income Status

The report notes that India can attain upper middle-income status if its per capita GNI grows at an average of roughly 8.3 percent annually, aligning with the growth trend of the past 20 years.

However, as the high-income threshold is projected to rise, India would need a higher annual growth rate of about 8.9 percent over the next 23 years to reach the high-income bracket by 2047, assuming the threshold climbs to USD 18,000.

SBI Research highlights that ongoing structural reforms are crucial to maintain the growth momentum required for India to achieve high-income status.

(KNN Bureau)