Employment to surpass pre-covid levels in Oct: CMIE
New Delhi, 22 Oct (KNN) The Centre for Monitoring Indian Economy Pvt. Ltd. (CMIE) reported that there will be a rise in employment level in October which will cross pre-covid levels.
“There seem to be good enough reasons to believe that October would also see an expansion in employment. Of course, there is still some catch up to do to match the employment India provided in 2019-20. India provided 406.2 million jobs in September 2021 compared to 408.9 million in 2019-20. But, the prospects of breaching the 2019-20 level are bright,” said CMIE.
The report analysed that the increase in employment in construction and food industries seen in September is likely to be more sustainable than the gains seen in August which were essentially in personal non-professional services (which are largely poor quality jobs) and retail trade (which could not be sustained in September).
“We watch the weekly releases of three key labour market ratios to assess the current labour market conditions. These are labour participation rate, unemployment rate and the employment rate to see how the post-September period is unfolding,” stated the business information company.
In urban regions, the ER was 35 per cent in the week ended October 17 compared to 34.6 per cent in September. More impressively, the 30-day moving average of the ER in urban India as of October 17, at 34.7 per cent was higher than the September ER of 34.6 per cent. Even the 30-day moving average unemployment rate at 7.9 per cent in urban India was lower than it was in the month of September when it was at 8.6 per cent.
In rural India, while the week of October 17 was better than the month of September, the 30-day moving average as of October 17 was trailing the average for the month of September. The rural employment rate during September was 39.5 per cent. The 30-day moving average as of October 17 was lower at 38.9 per cent. The coming harvest season could improve this towards the end of October.
Given this recent rise in the ER and prospects of its further consolidation, CMIE has forecasted that it is likely for employment to expand marginally in October.