India Could Cross USD 1 Tn in Exports This Fiscal on Sustained Trade Momentum: CEA Nageswaran

New Delhi, Oct 30 (KNN) India is on track to achieve or exceed USD 1 trillion in exports this financial year if the current pace of trade continues, according to Chief Economic Advisor (CEA) V Anantha Nageswaran.

Speaking at the ISID-IDRA Fourth National Conference on Thursday, Nageswaran said, “Trade numbers in the first 6 months of around USD 480 billion. If same pace continues, we are on track to exceed or even achieve USD 1 trillion exports this year,” ANI reported.

He emphasised that achieving this would require strengthening domestic manufacturing capabilities and improving industrial competitiveness amid growing geopolitical tensions and global supply disruptions.

Government Support Must Be Linked to Competitiveness

The CEA noted that India could no longer rely on international markets to provide essential goods as reliably as they did before the pandemic. He called for linking government support to industries' ability to compete in global markets through exports or against import prices.

“We have to insist on quid pro quo from the industry in terms of export competitiveness, and or import parity,” Nageswaran said.

He cautioned that protection without investment in productivity improvements could weaken industrial resilience. His presentation called for time-bound support linked to performance and exports, with protection withdrawn once domestic industries become competitive.

Manufacturing Growth and Import Trends

Nageswaran cited real GDP growth of 7.8 per cent in the first quarter of 2026-27, manufacturing gross value-added (GVA) growth of 9.2 per cent and gross fixed capital formation growth of 11.9 per cent.

However, manufacturing's share of GVA remained broadly unchanged at 14.8 per cent in 2025-26, compared with 14.7 per cent in 2022-23.

The CEA also highlighted the faster growth in core merchandise imports, which rose 19.7 per cent year-on-year during April-September 2026, compared with 16.2 per cent growth in core exports.

He stressed the need to build buffers of essential commodities and strengthen domestic capacity to ensure reliable access to critical resources while improving India's ability to supply global markets.

The export outlook, however, will depend on whether the trade momentum recorded in the first half of the financial year is sustained in the coming months.

(KNN Bureau)