India’s Merchandise Exports Seen At USD 111.9 Billion In Q1: Exim Bank

New Delhi, May 13 (KNN) Export-Import Bank of India has projected India’s total merchandise exports to reach USD111.9 billion in the first quarter (April-June) of FY2026-27, reflecting a marginal year-on-year growth of 0.3 percent, amid continued global economic uncertainty and geopolitical disruptions.

Non-Oil Exports Expected To Drive Growth 

According to the bank’s latest forecast, non-oil exports are expected to rise to USD97.8 billion, registering a stronger growth of 3.5 percent during the quarter. Meanwhile, non-oil and non-gems and jewellery exports are estimated at USD90.4 billion, marking a 2.9 percent year-on-year increase.

Exim Bank said the projected growth in non-oil exports is likely to be supported by increasing geographical diversification of India’s export basket, along with timely policy interventions such as targeted emergency credit support for exporters. 

It also noted that favourable outcomes fr0m recently concluded trade negotiations with select countries could help sustain momentum in non-oil export segments.

The bank added that India’s export outlook may also benefit fr0m an anticipated recovery in global demand and favourable exchange rate movements. 

Global Risks Continue To Cloud Export Outlook

However, it cautioned that persistent risks remain due to global economic uncertainty, ongoing geopolitical conflicts and volatility in international commodity prices.

The export projections are released by Export-Import Bank of India every quarter through its in-house Export Leading Index (ELI) model, which tracks and forecasts India’s export performance based on multiple domestic and international indicators.

Exim Bank said the model and forecast methodology were reviewed by a technical committee comprising experts fr0m the Reserve Bank of India, Jadavpur University, Madras School of Economics and Centre for Development Studies.

(KNN Bureau)