India’s Rice Exports May Decline 4 Percent in 2027 on Lower Supplies: USDA

New Delhi, Oct 13 (KNN) India’s rice exports are projected to fall 4 per cent to 24 million tonnes in 2027, mainly due to lower shipments of broken and white rice, according to a report by the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA).

The USDA attributed the expected decline to rising domestic prices and reduced exportable supplies. India accounts for over 40 per cent of global rice exports.

“A strong El Niño weather pattern is causing bad monsoons, which is expected to drop India’s rice production by 4.5 Percent to 147 million tonne (MT) in the current crop year (2026-27),” Suraj Agarwal, co-founder & CEO, Rice Villa, a rice exporting and marketing firm, told FE.

India’s rice production is projected to decline for the first time since the 2015-16 crop year. In 2025-26, the country produced 154 million tonnes, becoming the world’s largest rice producer. 

Agarwal said the USDA’s reduction of its global rice trade forecast by 1.3 million tonnes for 2027 could affect supplies and prices, given India’s share of 40-45 per cent in global rice exports.

Rice exports rose 2.17 per cent year-on-year to USD 4.81 billion during April-August 2026-27. However, supply disruptions and higher freight costs linked to the West Asia conflict continued to affect shipments.

Sources said lower production and rising domestic prices could slow rice exports during the current fiscal year.

Retail rice prices reached Rs 46.92 per kg, up 10 per cent from a year earlier. An official said the government held over 38 million tonnes of rice against the buffer requirement of 10.25 million tonnes for October 1. 

The government plans to release stocks through the Open Market Sale Scheme to curb price increases.

Prices of premium non-basmati varieties, including Sona Masoori, Ponni and Swarna, have risen 10-25 per cent year-on-year due to lower paddy acreage and deficient rainfall, particularly in southern India.

India exports basmati and non-basmati rice to more than 140 countries across Asia, the Middle East, Europe and the US. It faces competition from rice-exporting countries, including Pakistan and Thailand.

Paddy acreage during the current kharif season declined 3.7 per cent to 42.92 million hectares compared with the previous season. 

The largest reductions were reported in Karnataka at 0.46 million hectares, Telangana at 0.43 million hectares, Andhra Pradesh at 0.18 million hectares and Tamil Nadu at 0.15 million hectares.

(KNN Bureau)