India’s Rooftop Solar Capacity Could Reach 132 GW by 2030: ISMA

New Delhi, Sep 17 (KNN) India’s rooftop solar capacity could increase to 132 GW by 2030 from the current 17 GW, with annual demand estimated at 9-15 GW through 2030, according to a report by the Indian Solar Manufacturers Association (ISMA).

The report, titled Residential Rooftop Solar Market: Market Sizing and Growth Outlook, estimates that around 115 GW of additional rooftop solar potential remains untapped. 

It said the PM Surya Ghar: Muft Bijli Yojana (PMSGMBY), along with state-level incentives, has supported the expansion of residential rooftop solar installations.

According to the report, a typical 3 kW residential rooftop solar system, after central and state subsidies, has a payback period of 2 to 6.7 years across the 10 states with the highest rooftop solar adoption.

The analysis also examined payback periods without subsidies. It found that states with higher electricity tariffs, including Maharashtra and Kerala, have shorter payback periods, while states such as Uttar Pradesh, Gujarat and Tamil Nadu have longer payback periods due to lower tariffs.

Around 60 per cent of the capacity installed under the PM Surya Ghar scheme is in states where rooftop solar systems would not yet recover their costs without financial support, according to the report.

The report said residential rooftop solar deployment is also facing grid-hosting and metering constraints
 as installations increase. It identified March 2027, when the current phase of the PM Surya Ghar scheme is scheduled to end, as a key point for policy continuity.

Amit Manohar, Secretary General, ISMA, said early clarity on the next phase of the scheme, including consideration of PM Surya Ghar 2.0, would help maintain continuity in the market. The report suggested providing clarity on the next phase by December 2026.

The report estimates that annual rooftop solar demand could reach 9-15 GW through 2030, based on the projected expansion of residential rooftop solar capacity.

(KNN Bureau)