India Faces Growing Risk of Evening Power Cuts by 2027: Study

New Delhi, Jul 31 (KNN) A new research report from the India Energy and Climate Centre at the University of California, Berkeley, has raised concerns about India’s electricity stability, predicting that the country will likely face increasing evening power cuts by 2027.

This anticipated scenario is attributed to a lack of sufficient renewable energy-powered backup despite the country’s ongoing efforts to enhance its power generation capacity.

As of now, India boasts an installed electricity capacity of 446 gigawatts (GW), with 211 GW derived from coal, 195 GW from renewable energy sources, and the remainder from gas and nuclear energy.

However, this capacity does not always translate to availability, particularly during peak demand periods exacerbated by extreme weather conditions.

A recent peak power demand of 250 GW was recorded at 3 p.m. on May 30, with estimates suggesting it remained around 225 GW through the night. This level of demand presents a challenge for coal, the most reliable power source, which alone cannot meet such demands during evening hours.

The report highlights that while daytime demand spikes can be mitigated by solar energy, nighttime demands cannot be addressed with solar power. The absence of an adequate storage solution for solar energy exacerbates the problem.

To mitigate the risk of power shortages, the researchers suggest a strategic increase in utility-scale solar plants and battery storage. By 2027, adding 100-120 GW of new solar capacity, with 50-100 GW equipped with batteries capable of providing 4-6 hours of supply, could help alleviate evening shortages.

Despite planned expansions in coal and gas power, with an estimated 41 GW of new firm capacity expected by 2028, the researchers anticipate a shortfall of 15-20 GW during evening hours.

India's electricity demand grew by 7 per cent in 2023, significantly outpacing the global average of 2.2 per cent. The country has seen a dramatic increase in peak demand, rising from 182 GW in May 2019 to 250 GW in May 2024, a growth rate of 6.5 per cent annually. This surge, particularly notable post-COVID, has intensified the strain on existing power infrastructure.

The study’s authors, Nikit Abhyankar, Tarannum Sahar, and Amol Phadke, emphasise that even with an anticipated addition of 100 GW of renewable energy by 2027, the grid could still experience substantial shortages in the evening.

The report suggests that utilities may face increasing challenges in procuring reliable renewable energy sources, which are currently less effective in meeting peak evening loads compared to traditional fossil fuels.

India’s climate commitments include a target to add 500 GW of electricity from non-fossil fuel sources by 2030, with at least 293 GW expected to come from solar power. To date, the country has installed approximately 85 GW of solar capacity.

The ongoing challenge will be balancing this ambitious expansion with the immediate need for enhanced energy storage solutions to ensure a reliable and stable power supply across all hours of the day.

(KNN Bureau)