Timely Anti-Dumping Duties Can Save Rs 28,540 Crore Annually In Forex: Report

New Delhi, May 27 (KNN) A new report has found that swift implementation of pending trade remedy measures could significantly protect India's domestic manufacturing, preserve jobs, and reduce dependence on cheap foreign imports.

The Centre for Development and Economic Policy Research (C-DEP) and the Centre for WTO Studies (CWS) released the joint report titled ‘Impact of Anti-Dumping Duties in India’ at a roundtable attended by industry leaders from chemicals, polymers, textiles and other manufacturing sectors.

The report estimates that enforcing all pending anti-dumping duty recommendations by the Directorate General of Trade Remedies (DGTR) could yield approximately Rs 28,540 crore (USD 3 billion) in annual foreign exchange savings and help protect domestic investments worth Rs 70,000 crore.

Scale of Economic Losses

The report warns that economic losses from dumped imports — primarily from China — across 33 studied products currently stand at around Rs 1.54 lakh crore, and could rise to between Rs 2.68 lakh crore and Rs 2.70 lakh crore by 2030. 

Jobs at risk could grow from approximately 24,000 today to nearly 38,000–42,000 by 2030 if the situation remains unaddressed.

Non-implementation of duties on 56 DGTR-recommended products has already caused an annual economic loss of Rs 11,938 crore to domestic industry.

Minimal Impact on Inflation

Addressing a key concern often raised against anti-dumping duties, the report found their impact on consumer prices to be negligible. 

Analysis of 56 DGTR-recommended cases where duties were not implemented showed the median impact on final consumer prices would have been just 0.023 per cent, with over 91 per cent of cases seeing a price impact below 0.10 per cent.

For 21 products currently awaiting a final decision from the Ministry of Finance, the report found that even under a conservative 50 per cent cost pass-through assumption, the collective contribution to headline inflation would remain below 0.01 percentage points. Most of the products involved are intermediate industrial inputs with low direct weight in the Consumer Price Index basket.

MSMEs Bear the Brunt

The report highlights a disproportionate impact on small businesses. Non-implementation of duties has led to shutdowns in sectors such as sublimation-transfer paper, phone back covers, and Nylon Filament Yarn. 

Conversely, sectors where duties were imposed in time — including cable ties, ceramic ware, and vacuum flasks — saw continued operations, production expansion, and fresh MSME investment.

India's Restrained Approach

Despite concerns about protectionism, the report notes that India's use of anti-dumping duties remains moderate by global standards. 

The average duration of such duties in India stands at 6.97 years, well below the global average of 11.19 years. By comparison, the United States has imposed duties as high as 632 per cent on certain products, while Chinese duties on some intermediates exceed 160 per cent.

The report concluded that timely implementation of DGTR recommendations would help protect domestic manufacturing capacity, reduce import dependence, support industrial investment, and strengthen India's broader economic resilience.

(KNN Bureau)