GTRI Flags Challenges To India’s USD 1 Trillion Export Goal

New Delhi, Dec 26 (KNN) India’s ambition of exporting goods and services worth USD 1 trillion by the end of FY26 is looking difficult to achieve, according to an assessment by the Global Trade Research Initiative (GTRI). 

The analysis points to a widening gap between policy targets and prevailing economic realities, shaped by a weak global trade environment and unresolved domestic structural challenges.

Merchandise Exports Lag, Services Show Resilience

While services exports, driven by information technology and business services, have continued to grow steadily, merchandise exports have struggled to regain momentum. 

Slow demand in key markets such as the United States and Europe, combined with geopolitical uncertainty and ongoing supply chain disruptions, has restricted growth in goods exports.

GTRI founder Ajay Srivastava said global conditions remain unfavourable for export growth, as high rates, inflation and fiscal tightening curb demand, while rising protectionism raises compliance costs for exporters.

Domestic Constraints on Export Competitiveness

The report notes, high logistics costs, fragmented manufacturing bases and regulatory complexity continue to weigh on export competitiveness. 

Although production-linked incentive (PLI) schemes have attracted investment in select sectors, their impact on export volumes has been incremental rather than transformative.

The assessment questions the USD 1 trillion export target, noting it would require sustained double-digit growth despite weak global trade. Srivastava warned that focusing on headline numbers may side line priorities like export diversification, value addition and deeper global value chain integration.

Need for a Calibrated Export Strategy

While the report does not suggest a decline in India’s long-term export potential, it underlines the near-term constraints facing the economy.

India’s services sector remains globally competitive, but the absence of a strong manufacturing export engine, coupled with an adverse external environment, makes the FY26 target difficult to achieve.

GTRI urges for a standardised export strategy focused on competitiveness and resilience, stressing better trade infrastructure, lower costs, regulatory easing and high-value exports over ambitious numerical targets.

(KNN Bureau)