El Nino Could Strain India’s Power Supply, Push Coal Emissions Higher: CREA

New Delhi, Jul 7 (KNN) India's energy system is likely to be among the hardest hit globally by this year's El Nino, with falling wind and hydropower output combined with rising cooling demand potentially creating a generation gap of nearly 18 terawatt-hours (TWh), according to an analysis by the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air (CREA).

The analysis models the impact of the forecast transition from La Nina to El Nino on India's power sector between July 2026 and June 2027, noting that the country faces a dual challenge — falling winds and rainfall associated with El Nino will cut power generation from turbines and hydropower, while warmer temperatures will simultaneously drive up demand for air conditioning, PTI reported. 

Additional cooling demand could total 10 TWh within a year, equivalent to a quarter of Delhi's annual electricity use, the report said.

Coal Generation and Emissions Impact

CREA said the combined effect of lost renewable output and higher demand could push India towards a surge in coal-fired power generation, releasing an estimated 17 million tonnes of CO2. 

In the most severe scenario, additional coal generation could reach 24 TWh — roughly half of India's entire increase in coal burn last year, the analysis noted.

Grid Resilience Concerns

The report highlighted that India recently faced one of its hottest summers and a deadly heatwave, pushing peak power demand to a record 270 GW in May, and cautioned that a severe El Niño could worsen grid stress, water scarcity, and farm pressures.

With El Nino recurring on a two-to-seven-year cycle, the report noted that India's ability to meet or exceed its solar and storage deployment targets would be the key metric for grid resilience going forward, and called for the country to stay on track for its target of 500 GW of non-fossil power by 2030 while moving faster on battery storage and grid upgrades.

Coal Plant Flexibility Challenges

The analysis also noted that while record peaks like the 270 GW demand in May are cited to support new coal capacity, India’s coal plants struggle to operate flexibly in line with daily demand, leading grid operators to curtail about 2.1 TWh of renewable energy last year to keep them running.

Role of Solar Power

CREA said solar, which is far less impacted by El Niño than hydropower and wind, now meets 24 per cent of India’s daytime power demand, and said expanding solar and battery capacity would help shield the grid from extreme weather risks.

(KNN Bureau)