CII Business Confidence Soars as Firms Anticipate Private Capex Rise

New Delhi, Oct 7 (KNN) The Confederation of Indian Industry (CII) Business Confidence Index has surged to a two-quarter high of 68.2 for the July-September period, signalling renewed optimism in the Indian economy following the 2024 general elections.

The index, based on CII’s 128th Business Outlook Survey, covers responses from over 200 firms across diverse sectors and regions. The positive momentum comes on the back of policy stability, improved domestic consumption, and rising rural demand.

According to the CII, India’s economic growth remains resilient despite global uncertainties, with significant potential for further acceleration during the upcoming festive season. 

The survey highlights that economic recovery has been largely driven by robust demand in rural areas, steady monsoon progress, and a consistent government push for reforms.

The report acknowledges that global headwinds, including geopolitical tensions, rising commodity prices, and weakening external demand, remain key concerns for Indian businesses. 

Nonetheless, the domestic environment appears promising. The survey results point to optimism among companies regarding private capital expenditure (capex) and investment. 

Over 59% of respondents expect an uptick in private capex during the first half of FY25, driven by improving market conditions and a boost from the public sector’s increased infrastructure spending following the election lull.

Another notable finding is the anticipation of an interest rate cut by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) within this fiscal year. Approximately 34% of surveyed businesses foresee the RBI starting its rate-cutting cycle as early as Q3 FY25, while another 31% expect easing by Q4 FY25. 

Given the surplus liquidity in the banking system, many analysts believe the central bank might signal a shift in its monetary policy as early as October 2024.

In line with the improving business climate, employment opportunities are also expected to grow. Almost half of the surveyed firms indicated plans to increase hiring during the second quarter, underscoring the industry's confidence in continued economic growth and demand stability.

While the global landscape remains challenging, India’s economic trajectory appears firmly supported by strong domestic fundamentals, policy continuity, and the potential for rising investments.

(KNN Bureau)