India's Economy To Grow 7 percent In 2028, Outpace China By 3 Percentage Points: Moody's

New Delhi, Nov 12 (KNN) India’s economy is projected to grow at 7 per cent in 2028, compared with 4 per cent for China, widening the growth gap between the two countries to 3 percentage points, according to Moody’s Ratings.

In its Global Macro Outlook 2027-28 report, the ratings agency projected India’s economic growth at around 7 per cent annually over the medium term, supported by robust consumption, improving investment and strong macroeconomic fundamentals.

Moody’s Raises India’s FY27 Growth Forecast To 7 Per Cent

Moody’s also raised its growth forecast for India in FY2026-27 to 7 per cent from its earlier estimate of 6.5 per cent, citing resilience to global energy price shocks and improving investment conditions, reported ANI.

China’s growth, meanwhile, is expected to moderate from 4.5 per cent in 2026 to 4.2 per cent in 2027 and 4 per cent in 2028. This would widen India’s growth advantage from 2.5 percentage points in 2026 to 3 percentage points in 2028.

Weak Domestic Demand Weighs On China’s Growth Outlook

The agency attributed China’s slowdown to weak domestic demand, persistent difficulties in the property sector and increasing dependence on exports. 

Retail sales in China grew by just 1.1 per cent in September, while real estate investment declined 20.6 per cent during the first nine months of 2026.

Moody’s said weak consumer spending and the prolonged property market downturn continue to weigh on China’s economy, despite support from exports of technology products, automobiles and green energy equipment.

Private Investment Key To Sustaining India’s Growth

For India, the agency said sustained private investment could strengthen manufacturing, employment and productivity, potentially pushing growth above current projections.

However, it cautioned that rising inflation, higher interest rates and weaker agricultural output could pose near-term risks to the country's economic outlook.

(KNN Bureau)