India's Q2 GDP Growth Estimated At 7.8 percent, Exceeds RBI Forecast: SBI Research

New Delhi, Nov 12 (KNN) India's economy is estimated to have grown 7.8 per cent in the July-September quarter of FY2026-27, matching the previous quarter's growth and exceeding the Reserve Bank of India's (RBI) projection of 7.2 per cent, according to SBI Research.

The estimate is based on an assessment of 54 high-frequency indicators across agriculture, industry and services. 

Cement production, commercial vehicle sales, non-oil exports and port cargo showed stronger momentum towards the end of the quarter, while mining output, tractor sales and airport passenger traffic weakened.

Growth Indicators Show Mixed Performance

SBI Research expects real Gross Value Added (GVA) growth at 8-8.2 per cent in the second quarter, compared with 8.2 per cent in April-June. Nominal GDP growth is projected at 11-11.5 per cent, up from 10.3 per cent in the previous quarter, reported Money Control.

Agriculture Growth Expected To Moderate

Agricultural output prices are estimated to have risen by an average 7.8 per cent during July-September, compared with 4.95 per cent in the preceding quarter. However, real growth in agriculture and allied activities is expected to moderate to 2.8 per cent from 3.6 per cent.

Manufacturing And Services Maintain Momentum

In manufacturing, SBI Research estimates real growth at 8.7 per cent and nominal growth at 7.6 per cent, with input prices remaining higher than output prices across several segments, indicating limited cost pass-through by producers.

Services sector growth is projected to ease to 9.7 per cent from 10 per cent in the previous quarter.

Looking ahead, SBI Research expects real GDP growth to moderate to around 6.9 per cent in each of the final two quarters of FY2026-27.

(KNN Bureau)