GTRI Evaluates Impact of Proposed US Russia Sanctions Bill on Indian Exports

New Delhi, Aug 10 (KNN) The US Senate’s approval of a Russia sanctions bill could expose Indian exports to additional tariffs of up to 100 per cent if India continues importing Russian crude oil, think tank Global Trade Research Initiative (GTRI) said on Saturday.

The legislation, passed on August 7 with strong bipartisan support, seeks to penalise Russia and major buyers of its oil and gas, arguing that such trade contributes to the ongoing conflict in Ukraine. The bill, titled the Lindsey O. Graham Sanctioning Russia and Iran Act of 2026, now moves back to the House of Representatives for further consideration.

India Among Key Countries at Risk

Under the proposed law, US President Donald Trump would have the authority to impose tariffs of up to 100 per cent on goods imported from countries that continue purchasing Russian energy and rank among its top five buyers. 

GTRI noted that India, currently the second-largest importer of Russian crude, falls within this category.

Russia accounted for 30.3 per cent of India’s crude imports in FY2026, valued at approximately USD 40.8 billion. These discounted imports have helped India reduce its overall import bill, strengthen energy security, and contain inflationary pressures.

Tariffs Not Automatic but Discretionary

GTRI clarified that the bill does not mandate automatic imposition of tariffs. Instead, it empowers the US administration to levy additional duties—up to 100 per cent—on targeted countries 30 days after the law comes into force, provided they continue importing Russian oil or gas.

The proposed tariffs would be applied over and above existing US duties, including those under Sections 301 and 232, as well as anti-dumping and countervailing measures. Countries identified by the bill’s sponsors as major buyers include China, India, Slovakia, Hungary, and Azerbaijan.

Concerns Over Uneven Enforcement

GTRI Founder Ajay Srivastava said that although China imports more Russian oil than India, India may still face greater pressure from Washington. He pointed to past instances of US trade action targeting India more directly, including the imposition of an additional 25 per cent Russia-related tariff on Indian goods in July 2025, which was later withdrawn in February 2026, PTI reported.

India’s Energy Strategy and US Trade Relations

Srivastava highlighted that India has simultaneously increased its energy imports from the United States. Purchases of American crude rose to USD 9.1 billion in FY2026, while total energy imports from the US reached USD 12.5 billion, including liquefied natural gas, LPG, and petroleum coke.

He argued that this undermines claims that India is excluding US energy supplies and reflects a diversified sourcing strategy.

Call for Strategic Autonomy

The GTRI founder expressed broader concerns over the increasing use of trade measures by the US to advance foreign policy objectives. It cited tools such as reciprocal tariffs, Section 301 investigations, and sector-specific duties as part of a growing trend.

“As long as Russian crude remains commercially attractive, India should continue buying it. Differences with Washington must be managed through firm negotiation -- not extending unilateral concessions that raise India's energy costs and weaken its strategic autonomy,” Srivastava said.

(KNN Bureau)